4 thoughts on “…Donald Trump has a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election”
Hope some ball-and-urn expert here can address my pet peeve about statements like this one: Isn't a probability estimate for a singular event (the 2016 presidential election, rain tomorrow) fundamentally meaningless? Because doesn't it really mean: if we have 100 presidential elections in 2016, Trump will win 97 of them? Which is a useless or meaningless statement? Henngnhngn?
This forecast was made using the electoral cycle model, which studies a pattern of voting in the presidential election that makes it less likely for an incumbent party to hold the presidency after two terms in office. The model does not assume who would be the party nominees or the conditions of the country at the time.
Remember when the Reeps were saying that Obama was toast in 2012 because no President had ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate as high as it was at that time? Models are disproved by unusual and unique circumstances all the time, and this year will be no exception.
The primary model predicts a Trump victory with such certainty due to Trump’s relatively high success in the Republican primaries, Norpoth said.
Ignoring the sizable number of Democrats and Independents who loathe the man? Yeah, I'm totally convinced by this prediction!
Hope some ball-and-urn expert here can address my pet peeve about statements like this one: Isn't a probability estimate for a singular event (the 2016 presidential election, rain tomorrow) fundamentally meaningless? Because doesn't it really mean: if we have 100 presidential elections in 2016, Trump will win 97 of them? Which is a useless or meaningless statement? Henngnhngn?
Remember when the Reeps were saying that Obama was toast in 2012 because no President had ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate as high as it was at that time? Models are disproved by unusual and unique circumstances all the time, and this year will be no exception.
Ignoring the sizable number of Democrats and Independents who loathe the man? Yeah, I'm totally convinced by this prediction!
/FFS
I wonder how that guy that predicted Hillary Clinton would drop out by March after losing all but one primary is feeling.
I wonder how that guy who picked Romney over Obama in a landslide is feeling.
I wonder how everyone who thought Jeb Bush was a good candidate is feeling.
So, I like a guy who makes a clear statement. I'm also writing down his name so I can laugh at him later.