9 thoughts on “538: LA Times Pollsters in Tank With tRump”
Listening to "On The Media"'s excellent |piece| on how to interpret polls, I learned that the reason pollsters ask the seemingly-irrelevant "if the election were held today…" question is to force a decision from people who haven't made up their minds yet.
Why would they want to do that? To avoid non-news-worthy results like this:
![xTrump-Black-Support-01-800x416.jpg.pagespeed.ic.F06ZOIPfRH[1]](http://wonkville.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/xTrump-Black-Support-01-800x416.jpg.pagespeed.ic_.F06ZOIPfRH1-720x374.jpg)
Listening to "On The Media"'s excellent |piece| on how to interpret polls, I learned that the reason pollsters ask the seemingly-irrelevant "if the election were held today…" question is to force a decision from people who haven't made up their minds yet.
Why would they want to do that? To avoid non-news-worthy results like this:
Clinton: 25%
Trump: 22%
Johnson, Stein: Huh?
Undecided: 53%
Godda…………never mind……….
Woah, for some version of reality, Trumpf was right! He is doing great with the blacks. His hands are probably large and manly in that reality too.
When your best poll has you tied you're probably in deep trouble.
Trump: unfit to be tied?
<img src="http://static6.comicvine.com/uploads/scale_large/6/67663/4365804-62.jpg">
Hoo wow, Jack Kirby cover?
"Not as much as we are!"
– Angelenos everywhere
@NateSilver538
There's like a heirachy of poll de-derping:
1-3 points down: CHERRY-PICKING
3-6: UNSKEWING
6-10: "SILENT MAJORITY"
10+: DIEBOLD / CHEMTRAILS