14 thoughts on “No to Pilot, Mechanical, and Missile

  1. NYT say

    The plane’s speed dropped to about 186 miles per hour and fell about 5,000 feet one minute before it crashed, Mr. Smirnov said, adding that the brief irregular flight path probably indicated that the pilots were struggling to control the Airbus 321-200….

    He said the tail was checked every 24 months and any cracks or metal fatigue would have been discovered because such cracks develop slowly.

    There have been at least two previous cases in which airplanes broke apart long after similar tail repairs were done.

    A China Airlines Boeing 747 en route to Hong Kong from Taiwan in May 2002 broke into several pieces as it was climbing to 35,000 feet, killing all 225 people on board. The repairs made 22 years earlier on the tail failed, causing a sudden and explosive decompression, according to the analysis by the Taiwanese government.

    A Japan Airlines 747 suffered a similar failure in 1985, seven years after a tail strike had been repaired. The crew struggled to control the plane for some 46 minutes after takeoff before it crashed, killing all but four of the 524 people on board.

      1. The only practical connections between the inhabited islands of the Hawaiian chain is by air, so those planes took off and landed more than almost any others, or so it was said at the time. Charter airplanes might have similar flight history.

        All I know is, don't fly anywhere on the De Haviland Comet. "Hull loss" was a lot more catastrophic than it sounds.

  2. I'm having a hard time believing it was a missile. No shoulder fired missile can get anywhere near that altitude and I have serious doubts that anyone could smuggle a truck based weapon like a Buk into the Sinai, fire up the radar and lock onto a target at 31,000 feet without both the Israeli and Egyptian militaries going nuts. It's not like everyone in the vicinity doesn't watch that stretch of land like a hawk and turning on targeting radar is the equivalent of setting off a road flare in the middle of a darkened movie theater- kind of hard to miss. I also wouldn't put it past Putin to lie through his teeth both to cover up shoddy maintenance and to stir up some nationalism to garner support for his Syrian bombing.

    1. Well, it says here in my Trutherism for Dummies, that whenever something bad happens, look first for who should have known the cause, they are, prima facie, the ones who did cause the bad thing. So Imma go with an Israel/Egypt conspiracy.

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