Both the big islands are mountainous, so there's places to get away from storm surge. The smaller islands, not so much. Also, they've got a serious deforestation problem, so expect landslides.
Yeah, me too. On the beach or islands, you get a lot of "oh, we've seen this before, we made it through fine and it's not so bad" sort of thing. Doesn't mean that the next storm won't be cataclysmic and all it takes is one.
New update is even worse. Winds up to 165 mph, expected to make landfall with 185 mph winds. We may be looking at a situation similar to Pam or Haiyan.
Well I didn't track it back in my case, I found that right as it was happening and it was so weird. It was literally the site for a major news channel in the Philippines o_O
Wow, that's like getting hosed by the CBS site here. Now I know where all those Viagra spams are coming from.
Lines are down and widespread structural damage, probably. They've got back up power, I'm sure, but if there's no way for the signal to get out than there's no radar. Even a satellite uplink is useless – so much water and electrical charge in the air nothing's getting through. Either way.
Where are you guys seeing this information? I just noticed this post, have no idea why I missed it earlier, but I want to see info w/o clicking on whatever Karen is saying is spewing viruses.
The spewing viruses site was from Haiyan a few years ago. The rest is just data from the Fiji Meteorological Service and Joint Typhoon Warning Center, both safe.
The Fiji one seems to be totally down now. I hope they are OK.
Well, good news, last couple of frames of radar has Labasa radar back up, maybe they're doing okay. I think Fiji's site going down from time to time might have to do with high traffic. They're a small island country so they're probably not used to a large population checking this often.
Imma gonna hope that's the case and not something worse.
JTWC saying 185 mph winds and 903 mb. Official data isn't quite as ridiculous at 140 mph 10-minute (about 160 for the typical 1 minute in the US) and 920 mb but at that point it's total devastation either way.
Update from Nadi, Fiji (where they haven't even come close to peak): It's still getting stronger, winds here are 10-minute average which comes out to about 165 mph 1-minute.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 917HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S
179.9W AT 200000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR AND RADAR
IMAGES. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 125 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 17.1S 178.1E MOV W AT 09KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 17.3S 176.7E MOV W AT 08KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
Also noting that most of the global models manage to have a trough pick it up, drag it southeast for a while, then build a ridge to push it back west. Winston may be around for the rest of the month. GFS tries to drag it all the way to Australia but that's a long way out.
Thanks for this and keeping on it. I didn't even grasp that first map of the track of the change in direction . Like: Well, there's some mistake b.c. this says it came back at an acute angle. Somebody screwed up……….well, it was just me .
The Fiji Times reports that all communications to Taveuni have been cut by the storm and there's also damage reports from Lau. Some structural damage, and this is from before it got to peak there.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii is estimating 185 mph winds. Whether those winds hit the major island, Viti Levu, depends on track wobbles. It's a small storm and it's going to be that close. There will be damage either way but only time will tell if it'll wipe out the entire northern half of the island or not.
And then the Prime Minister says this as the storm wobbles toward the island, which pretty much guarantees a direct hit barring something crazy:
"And I am especially concerned that some people in urban areas of the country in particular do not appear to have heeded the warnings about the seriousness of the threat we all face."
Last one before I sleep: Winston made landfall, likely at peak intensity, about half an hour ago. There was a 10-minute sustained wind and Nambouwalu, which was on the other side of the island from where landfall was, of 121 mph. I worry what we will learn about the damage over the coming days, considering that's where some of the weakest wind would normally be found.
Yeah right? I think people are getting the hint now, with all the horrific weather we've been getting becoming the norm. At least, I hope so. When you hear the terms "100 year", "500 year", "unprecedented", "unheard of" and "never before seen" on the weather reports every year then it's time to re-evaluate your preparedness.
Uh oh.
<img src="http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/b4/64/b4647ae16df7e26edacf4a60193eda2d.jpg?itok=DzVvOdQq"/>
Artisan salt water about to be their newest product.
|Sere Vucu|
@philklotzbach 2 hours ago
Vanua Balavu Island reported sustained winds of 85 mph with gusts over 100 mph before station went offline.
Both the big islands are mountainous, so there's places to get away from storm surge. The smaller islands, not so much. Also, they've got a serious deforestation problem, so expect landslides.
And people on the main island, Viti Levu, are apparently quite complacent. I'm worried about the results.
Yeah, me too. On the beach or islands, you get a lot of "oh, we've seen this before, we made it through fine and it's not so bad" sort of thing. Doesn't mean that the next storm won't be cataclysmic and all it takes is one.
New update is even worse. Winds up to 165 mph, expected to make landfall with 185 mph winds. We may be looking at a situation similar to Pam or Haiyan.
Shit. I'm tempted to link to that Typhoon Hayian storm surge clip, but I don't want to think about it. I hope everyone's evacuated those tiny islands.
I got three computer viruses off the site that had the live feed where the clip was taken from lol
Woah! I didn't track it back, just looked on YouTube. Good thing! I trust my layers of security, but there's always that *one time* …
Well I didn't track it back in my case, I found that right as it was happening and it was so weird. It was literally the site for a major news channel in the Philippines o_O
Wow, that's like getting hosed by the CBS site here. Now I know where all those Viagra spams are coming from.
The malware is just seeking higher ground.
BUILD THE DANG FENCE!
Radar from Labasa, Fiji, is down. Serious damage there is likely considering that.
Lines are down and widespread structural damage, probably. They've got back up power, I'm sure, but if there's no way for the signal to get out than there's no radar. Even a satellite uplink is useless – so much water and electrical charge in the air nothing's getting through. Either way.
Where are you guys seeing this information? I just noticed this post, have no idea why I missed it earlier, but I want to see info w/o clicking on whatever Karen is saying is spewing viruses.
The spewing viruses site was from Haiyan a few years ago. The rest is just data from the Fiji Meteorological Service and Joint Typhoon Warning Center, both safe.
The Fiji one seems to be totally down now. I hope they are OK.
Well, good news, last couple of frames of radar has Labasa radar back up, maybe they're doing okay. I think Fiji's site going down from time to time might have to do with high traffic. They're a small island country so they're probably not used to a large population checking this often.
Imma gonna hope that's the case and not something worse.
11P WINSTON 160220 0000 17.2S 179.9W SHEM 160 903
11P WINSTON 160220 0000 17.2S 179.9W SHEM 160 903
JTWC saying 185 mph winds and 903 mb. Official data isn't quite as ridiculous at 140 mph 10-minute (about 160 for the typical 1 minute in the US) and 920 mb but at that point it's total devastation either way.
Also found a live-blog here: http://350.org/live-blog-tropical-cyclone-winston…
NOAA's high seas forecast for the affected area:
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn.pl?file=r…
Should get updated around 0600 UTC. And people with a shortwave radio should be able to hear this about once an hour.
Also too: 50,292 kt is exactly 57,875 mph.
By the way, that island about to be run right over on the radar is Koro, which has a population of about 4500.
It's like being in the path of a bomb.
Update from Nadi, Fiji (where they haven't even come close to peak): It's still getting stronger, winds here are 10-minute average which comes out to about 165 mph 1-minute.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 917HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S
179.9W AT 200000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT EIR AND RADAR
IMAGES. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 125 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 17.1S 178.1E MOV W AT 09KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 17.3S 176.7E MOV W AT 08KT WITH 125 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
<img src="http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbnzG1YWEAQ_J9x.png" />
Also, for anyone, here is the track so far. It is absolutely insane.
<img src="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/706/utewA8.gif">
Also noting that most of the global models manage to have a trough pick it up, drag it southeast for a while, then build a ridge to push it back west. Winston may be around for the rest of the month. GFS tries to drag it all the way to Australia but that's a long way out.
Thanks for this and keeping on it. I didn't even grasp that first map of the track of the change in direction . Like: Well, there's some mistake b.c. this says it came back at an acute angle. Somebody screwed up……….well, it was just me .
The track looks like a four-year-old got out some crayons and scribbled on a map.
AHA!!!!!!!!!!
Find that kid!!!!!
The Fiji Times reports that all communications to Taveuni have been cut by the storm and there's also damage reports from Lau. Some structural damage, and this is from before it got to peak there.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii is estimating 185 mph winds. Whether those winds hit the major island, Viti Levu, depends on track wobbles. It's a small storm and it's going to be that close. There will be damage either way but only time will tell if it'll wipe out the entire northern half of the island or not.
And then the Prime Minister says this as the storm wobbles toward the island, which pretty much guarantees a direct hit barring something crazy:
"And I am especially concerned that some people in urban areas of the country in particular do not appear to have heeded the warnings about the seriousness of the threat we all face."
Update: Winston now the strongest storm recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, breaking the record set by Pam and Monica.
Holy crap.
Last one before I sleep: Winston made landfall, likely at peak intensity, about half an hour ago. There was a 10-minute sustained wind and Nambouwalu, which was on the other side of the island from where landfall was, of 121 mph. I worry what we will learn about the damage over the coming days, considering that's where some of the weakest wind would normally be found.
<img src="http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/035/769/fba.jpg" />
Famous Last Words:
Bar Harbor, Maine. A little breakfast place in town.
Torrential rain.
Me: "We're outa here. You guys better get yourselves prepared."
Him: "For what"
Me" | Bob. |
Him: "Ha, yer in Maine! We nevah gits Hurricanes heah."
I don't get how people can think that it's a good idea not to be prepared. Better to prepare and have it not come than not to prepare and be hit.
In his defense, "Bob" isn't a very intimidating name.
It's bad that the best-case scenario for that island is worst-case for the second-most populated island. Someone's getting hit either way.
Yeah right? I think people are getting the hint now, with all the horrific weather we've been getting becoming the norm. At least, I hope so. When you hear the terms "100 year", "500 year", "unprecedented", "unheard of" and "never before seen" on the weather reports every year then it's time to re-evaluate your preparedness.
To be fair, anyone who lives & works on the Atlantic Coast takes | Nor'easters | very, very seriously.
Sounds slightly less dangerous than its replacement, "Bill."