6 thoughts on “Trump on pace for nomination, Rubio probably the last chance to stop him”
Everybody (even Nate Silver) is having a hard time letting go of the someone-will-stop-Trump meme.
Viz, Silver: "The [Nevada} result underscores that preventing Trump from winning the nomination is likely to require both that anti-Trump Republicans coalesce around an alternative and that they adopt a much more aggressive strategy in probing Trump for signs of weakness." This is not hard-nosed data-driven analysis; it is a guy desperately massaging the numbers to find some support for his earlier assertions that Trump cannot win.
That analysis doesn't even seem wrong though. Trump's in the 45% range in his good states so if everyone decides to back someone (probably Rubio, since his best states are in the second half of the process) they could just get enough to knock him off. Not likely, but Rubio is clearly their best option at this point and they've also been misplaying this really badly.
No doubt. But from the same article: "If South Carolina, which Trump won Saturday, provided some bits of good news for Trump skeptics — Trump faded over the course of the week and finished with less of the vote than he had in New Hampshire…."
"Trump skeptics" = Nate. And, as Trump pointed out last night, not every supporter of non-Trump candidates will switch their allegiance to the single non-Trump candidate. Seems like a lot of nihilist Cruz and Carson supporters would go to Trump, for instance.
Trump skeptics=quite a few people tbh. I'd take Nate Silver over whoever is running the Rubio campaign right now, they've been playing this like Andy Reid's clock management. They're barely even attacking the frontrunner and I don't know why, it's really quite dumb.
Personally? I'd give Trump about 65%, Rubio around 35%. It's more likely than not to be Trump vs Clinton but Rubio and Sanders both have an outside chance of winning. Not likely (especially for Sanders), but too early to say it's over.
The more delegates Cruz or any of the others win in the SEC primaries on Super Tuesday, the greater the odds that neither Rubio nor Trump will win 1,237 delegates by June, raising the prospect of a contested convention in Cleveland.
I may have to take some vacation time then, just to watch every minute of this clusterfuck. Hee hee hee…
Everybody (even Nate Silver) is having a hard time letting go of the someone-will-stop-Trump meme.
Viz, Silver: "The [Nevada} result underscores that preventing Trump from winning the nomination is likely to require both that anti-Trump Republicans coalesce around an alternative and that they adopt a much more aggressive strategy in probing Trump for signs of weakness." This is not hard-nosed data-driven analysis; it is a guy desperately massaging the numbers to find some support for his earlier assertions that Trump cannot win.
That analysis doesn't even seem wrong though. Trump's in the 45% range in his good states so if everyone decides to back someone (probably Rubio, since his best states are in the second half of the process) they could just get enough to knock him off. Not likely, but Rubio is clearly their best option at this point and they've also been misplaying this really badly.
No doubt. But from the same article: "If South Carolina, which Trump won Saturday, provided some bits of good news for Trump skeptics — Trump faded over the course of the week and finished with less of the vote than he had in New Hampshire…."
"Trump skeptics" = Nate. And, as Trump pointed out last night, not every supporter of non-Trump candidates will switch their allegiance to the single non-Trump candidate. Seems like a lot of nihilist Cruz and Carson supporters would go to Trump, for instance.
tehRump canvassers are hard at work in Florida.
<img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_n4zMSb0mO2w/TKki2Et8PjI/AAAAAAAAKCk/yHEsFjAE8PI/s400/alligator-at-door.jpg" width="275">
Trump skeptics=quite a few people tbh. I'd take Nate Silver over whoever is running the Rubio campaign right now, they've been playing this like Andy Reid's clock management. They're barely even attacking the frontrunner and I don't know why, it's really quite dumb.
Personally? I'd give Trump about 65%, Rubio around 35%. It's more likely than not to be Trump vs Clinton but Rubio and Sanders both have an outside chance of winning. Not likely (especially for Sanders), but too early to say it's over.
I may have to take some vacation time then, just to watch every minute of this clusterfuck. Hee hee hee…