11 thoughts on “A look at what a Bernie Sanders comeback might look like”
Okay, so this is how I made this.
If a state has decent polling available (within the last couple of months) I used that. If not, I looked at 538 targets, did the math to get to the right vote percentage, and shifted it toward a Clinton win by 10 since that's where she is in national polls on average. After that, I just shifted things a point toward Sanders for every primary and repeated it, going 1 point for each at a time, until getting a Sanders majority. The only change after that was to shift the vote percentage numbers to the lowest amount Sanders would need to reach that delegate number. The result is what you have here.
Honestly, this is extremely unlikely, but it at least shows the math and what would be needed for such a huge comeback.
Well my bride and I will be at the Washington caucus tomorrow. Don't think your WA numbers there are a reach, and in fact might be a bit light for Bernie.
If there's a day where he can beat these numbers, it's certainly tomorrow. There's no polling for HI and WA and only one poll from two months ago for AK. The demographics heavily favor him and WA is also an open caucus so it's like his dream.
I feel like it'll be pretty big for Bernie in AK/WA and I have no idea what to expect from HI.
In Hawaii, a write-in campaign for Spam™ might be a sleeper.
Okay, so this is how I made this.
If a state has decent polling available (within the last couple of months) I used that. If not, I looked at 538 targets, did the math to get to the right vote percentage, and shifted it toward a Clinton win by 10 since that's where she is in national polls on average. After that, I just shifted things a point toward Sanders for every primary and repeated it, going 1 point for each at a time, until getting a Sanders majority. The only change after that was to shift the vote percentage numbers to the lowest amount Sanders would need to reach that delegate number. The result is what you have here.
Honestly, this is extremely unlikely, but it at least shows the math and what would be needed for such a huge comeback.
Lol, you are such a numbers geek- I like it!
I can't help myself!
Well my bride and I will be at the Washington caucus tomorrow. Don't think your WA numbers there are a reach, and in fact might be a bit light for Bernie.
If there's a day where he can beat these numbers, it's certainly tomorrow. There's no polling for HI and WA and only one poll from two months ago for AK. The demographics heavily favor him and WA is also an open caucus so it's like his dream.
I feel like it'll be pretty big for Bernie in AK/WA and I have no idea what to expect from HI.
In Hawaii, a write-in campaign for Spam™ might be a sleeper.
<img src="http://www.bosshi.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/IMG_8622-1.jpg" width="300">
my Hawaii post got eaten…
It was in the spam folder, which seems to be hilariously accurate and wrong at the same time.
too funny
And an image search for "bernie sanders unicorn" gives me…
<img src="http://images.dailykos.com/images/125945/story_image/UnicornKitten.jpg">
(Somewhere, Lisa Frank just had an orgasm.)
Somewhere, EVERYONE just had an orgasm.