9 thoughts on “2016 Delegate targets: Post-Saturday update”
Bernie did what he needed to do last night. He won and won big and beat his targets. I adjusted the numbers based on the results last night as well as new polling data from a few states like WI and PA.
Vote percentages are the lowest needed to reach a delegate target, here are the ranges Bernie would need to hit go into the convention with barely a majority of pledged delegates:
Good ciphering Karen. Prior to the caucuses yesterday 538s splits showed Bernie winning, but barely. I wonder if Nate & his minions are having a serious chatcave discussion on future projections?
538s splits were also set up way back in late February, and they had much less data to go on than we do now. I'm still not sure why we had only one poll in the last three months for those three states combined though…
Just an observation – the precincts that met yesterday at our local community center were mixed racial, But knowing neighbors and such, among black voters the older, less educated were for Hillary, the younger more educated felt the Bern. That follows the national findings support skews based on age and education.
Here in Ohio, the splits were weird. Hillary outperformed among those without any college education AND those with a postgraduate degree, and Bernie did better among those with some college or an associate/bachelor's degree.
Bernie did what he needed to do last night. He won and won big and beat his targets. I adjusted the numbers based on the results last night as well as new polling data from a few states like WI and PA.
Vote percentages are the lowest needed to reach a delegate target, here are the ranges Bernie would need to hit go into the convention with barely a majority of pledged delegates:
WI: 59%
WY: 76-82%
NY: 44%
CT: 61-62%
MD: 43%
PA: 48%
RI: 61-64%
IN: 64%
GU: 51-64%
WV: 68-70%
KY: 63-64%
OR: 70-71%
VI: 51-64%
PR: 60%
CA: 61%
MT: 70-73%
NJ: 52%
NM: 58-60%
ND: 70-74%
SD: 68-72%
DC: 48-52%
Excellent work!
Thanks!
Good ciphering Karen. Prior to the caucuses yesterday 538s splits showed Bernie winning, but barely. I wonder if Nate & his minions are having a serious chatcave discussion on future projections?
538s splits were also set up way back in late February, and they had much less data to go on than we do now. I'm still not sure why we had only one poll in the last three months for those three states combined though…
Wow, Karen, very cool.
Just an observation – the precincts that met yesterday at our local community center were mixed racial, But knowing neighbors and such, among black voters the older, less educated were for Hillary, the younger more educated felt the Bern. That follows the national findings support skews based on age and education.
Here in Ohio, the splits were weird. Hillary outperformed among those without any college education AND those with a postgraduate degree, and Bernie did better among those with some college or an associate/bachelor's degree.
Interesting that. Can't wait to see the demographic splits out here.