4 thoughts on “Post-New York Democratic Delegate Targets”
After New York, the Democratic race has reached a point where the numbers are getting quite out of reach. Take Connecticut, for example. Polling has Clinton up by about 11, but Sanders needs to win by about 16 to come back. Numbers in other states are similar.
I'm tempted to try to come up with numbers for Trump to hit 1237 on the Republican side, but those can be super complicated. I'll see what I can do.
Okay, not doing vote numbers for the Republicans (delegate allocation is way too complicated to do that), but here's a path for Trump to reach 1237 with pledged delegates.
Note that if Trump ends up at something like 1200 or so, he could very well make up that small difference with the goal (1237) with unbound delegates. There's 54 of them in PA with only 17 being bound to the vote, so convincing them and some other unbound ones may be enough. There's a month and a half after the last vote to get these deals done so who knows what'll happen.
So it's Trump v Hillary in November, unless she's indicted or the results of the Myers-Briggs Personality Inventory test Trump took at his military prep school are leaked.
After New York, the Democratic race has reached a point where the numbers are getting quite out of reach. Take Connecticut, for example. Polling has Clinton up by about 11, but Sanders needs to win by about 16 to come back. Numbers in other states are similar.
I'm tempted to try to come up with numbers for Trump to hit 1237 on the Republican side, but those can be super complicated. I'll see what I can do.
Okay, not doing vote numbers for the Republicans (delegate allocation is way too complicated to do that), but here's a path for Trump to reach 1237 with pledged delegates.
CT: 28/28
DE: 16/16
MD: 28/38
PA: 11/17
RI: 12/19
IN: 51/57
NE: 0/36
WV: 25/34
OR: 17/28
WA: 30/44
CA: 107/172
MT: 0/27
NJ: 51/51
NM: 12/24
SD: 0/29
Note that if Trump ends up at something like 1200 or so, he could very well make up that small difference with the goal (1237) with unbound delegates. There's 54 of them in PA with only 17 being bound to the vote, so convincing them and some other unbound ones may be enough. There's a month and a half after the last vote to get these deals done so who knows what'll happen.
So it's Trump v Hillary in November, unless she's indicted or the results of the Myers-Briggs Personality Inventory test Trump took at his military prep school are leaked.
When you've lost [Hannity…]