And Now Some Maths, Because We Love the Maths! September 8, 2016 weejee 1402217 Commentshttp%3A%2F%2Fwonkville.net%2F2016%2F09%2F08%2Fand-now-some-maths-because-we-love-the-maths%2FAnd+Now+Some+Maths%2C+Because+We+Love+the+Maths%212016-09-08+15%3A36%3A29Anonymous+Wonkerhttp%3A%2F%2Fwonkville.net%2F2016%2F09%2F08%2Fand-now-some-maths-because-we-love-the-maths%2F 00
538 has Clinton with a 69.2% chance of winning.
|PEC has Clinton 346 Trump 192|
Now this is a|choropleth| you can get behind!
Hate to harp on this, but probabilistic predictions of individual, unique events are…what's the word? Oh yeah: worthless.
SO YOU'RE SAYING HARAMBE HAS A CHANCE
you can talk about it if it's a future event
Hope you can 'splain that to me. It would make sense if we had 100 elections and Hillz won 67% of them, but that can't be, obvs.
The explanation of that is probably outside the scope of a comment on this page, but as an example of a counterintuitive outcome that can be proven rigorously by probability theory- if you have a 50/50 chance of a boy or a girl and have 4 kids, what's the most likely outcome? 3 of one sex and 1 of the other.
If Hillz has a 67% chance of winning, get a 12 sided die (dodecahedron) and roll it once. If it lands on anything other than 1-4, she wins. Single event. If you did it fifty million times, you'd expect her to win 67% of the time.
If you flip a fair coin 99 times and get 99 heads, what's the odds the 100th flip will be heads? 50/50. Probability only speaks to stuff in the future.
An electron in a pz orbital has zero probability of being found in the xy plane. You will _never_ find it in the xy plane. How does it get from one side to the other? This is in fact a trick question. If you know the electron's location, the wavefunction has collapsed- the wave function only applies to future events or observations.
Probability theory is way cool, and I had the BEST teacher in my life for a class on it. RIP, Mr. Schnure.
Your first example illustrates that you need to ask the question precisely. 2G/2B is more likely than either 3G/1B or 1G/3B, but 2/2 is less likely than 3/1. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go tell Monty Hall to open door 3 so we can find out if Rosencrantz and Guildernstern are dead or alive.
I knew there was a finite probability of someone pointing that out. Well done, sir!>
Paddypower is currently offering 4/11 on Clinton, 11/5 on Trump. Bookies make their living out of having a better idea of the probability of a one-off event than the average punter.
You know, that's a better way to look at the outcomes than speaking about this event. These so-called "probabilities" are more akin to where a bookie would set his odds to make the most money from those who bet on Hillz or tRump.
I prefer these predictions just for my mental comfort.
It ain't over 'til it's over, but I like Hillz' chances more than The Cubs.
White House Watch: Clinton 43%, Trump 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 2% http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/po…
I like their mode of picking the mean.
Wow, if Doc Stein can't campaign in ND, she might not carry the state!